7月31日讀畢需時 7 分鐘

美联储议息会议笔记：虽转向中性，但对降息似有迟疑

来源：华尔街见闻

鲍威尔强调了9月有可能降息，但前提是看到数据总体性地另联储满意，而非基于单个数据点做出政策反应。

摘要

会议声明中有多处改变，以体现经济情况的变化。
有关就业市场，声明提及就业增速有所放缓，且 失业率小幅上升但“维持低位”。Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
有关通胀的措辞，形容高企的程度变为了 “somewhat”，此前的 “modest futher progress”转变为了“ some further progress”。Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
声明强调了联储的风险管理姿态是平衡的，注重双重使命的“两端”，而非此前的仅针对通胀的“ highly attentive to inflation risks”。The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
鲍威尔在问答环节的开始就强调了9月 有可能降息，但 前提是看到数据总体性地另联储满意，而非基于单个数据点做出政策反应。似乎并 不愿意给市场设定 9月降息作为基准情形（提到0次或几次都是可行的）。
发布会中鲍威尔给人感觉意图 保持风险平衡姿态的绝对中性，而非暴露鸽派的降息倾向。笔者的观感是，本次会议结果和发布会的表态鲍威尔 中性偏鹰派， 但市场的认知似乎是偏鸽派的，声明的边际变化和口吻都倾向于强调“数据依赖性”和“综合考量双重使命”， 并不像上半年有明显鸽派倾向，即完全没有显露出9月降息的迫切感。
美股市场在发布会期间保持强势，纳指强势反弹3%，美债收益率及美元指数则在发布会期间下跌。
笔者认为，联储可能会 在今年8月的杰克逊霍尔会议上进一步明确降息的条件，届时鲍威尔也将获得更多充分的数据支持。

声明原文（粗体为关键变化）

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。就业增长有所放缓，失业率有所上升，但仍然较低。通货膨胀在过去一年中有所缓解，但仍有点偏高。近几个月来，在实现委员会2%的通胀目标方面又取得了一些进展。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

委员会力求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%的通胀率。委员会判断，实现其就业和通胀目标的风险继续趋于平衡。经济前景不明朗，委员会关注其双重任务中的两方面风险。

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

为支持其目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 5.25%至 5.5 %。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行任何调整时，委员会将仔细评估收到的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。委员会预计，在对通胀率持续向 2% 迈进有更大信心之前，不宜降低目标区间。此外，委员会将继续减持国债、机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券。委员会坚定地致力于使通胀率回到 2% 的目标。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测所收到的信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括对劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际发展的解读。

本次会议无经济预测

...... 待续（见广告后）